Weather Edge: NOAA Forecast Data Mapped to Kalshi Temperature Markets
Every morning: the latest NOAA/NWS forecast for all 14 Kalshi weather cities, compared against active temperature markets. Get clear BUY YES / BUY NO signals with confidence scores — using the exact same data Kalshi settles on.
The Problem
Kalshi weather markets settle on NWS Daily Climate Reports — data that is public, free, and forecastable. But most traders bet on gut feeling or glance at a weather app. The traders who consistently profit on temperature markets are the ones running systematic NOAA comparisons.
You could do this yourself: find the right NWS station for each city, pull the forecast, map it to Kalshi thresholds, calculate the edge. It takes 45 minutes every morning.
The Solution
Weather Edge does it for you. Every morning before the markets open, we fetch the latest NOAA ensemble forecast for all 14 cities, compare it against every active Kalshi temperature market, and deliver a PDF with clear signals.
Open the PDF. See the signals. Place your trades. That is the whole workflow.
What's Inside Every Daily Report
🌤️ 14-City NOAA Forecast
Tomorrow's high and low temperature for every Kalshi weather city — straight from the official NWS station of record (KNYC, KMIA, KMDW, etc.). Same data Kalshi uses for settlement. Updated before 7 AM ET.
📊 Edge Analysis Per Market
For every temperature threshold on Kalshi: NOAA confidence score (0-100%), degrees of cushion above/below the threshold, and a clear signal — BUY YES, BUY NO, or NEUTRAL. Only trade when confidence is 80%+.
🔥 Top Opportunities Highlighted
The 3-5 strongest signals of the day, ranked by edge size. Markets where NOAA is 90%+ confident AND the Kalshi price still offers a positive expected value after fees. These are the trades worth your capital.
📈 Historical Accuracy Tracker
We track every signal against actual outcomes. Over 100+ resolved markets, you can see exactly how often NOAA's 80% confidence signals were correct. Transparency builds trust — we show you the data.
🗺️ NWS Station Map
Quick reference: every city's official NWS station ID, coordinates, and data quirks (hourly vs 5-minute stations, rounding behavior, conversion errors). Based on community research from r/Kalshi.
📧 Morning Delivery
PDF delivered to your inbox every morning, typically by 7:30 AM ET — before most temperature markets open for the day. Downloadable archive of all past reports included.
"Temperature markets are the closest thing to a structural edge a retail trader can access. The data is public, the models are free, and the competition is mostly retail traders who check the weather app once and buy whatever feels right. This report automates everything between you and that edge."
— EdgeOutcome Team
Frequently Asked Questions
What data does Weather Edge use?
NOAA/NWS ensemble forecasts from api.weather.gov — the official US government weather service. These are the same forecasts that Kalshi uses to settle temperature markets via the NWS Daily Climate Report. No third-party weather apps. No commercial forecasting services.
How do I use the report to trade?
Open the PDF. Look for BUY YES or BUY NO signals with 80%+ confidence. Check the current Kalshi market price against our NOAA probability estimate. If the market is mispriced by more than the 1.75¢ fee, place a limit order on Kalshi. That's it.
Why $19/month?
A single winning weather trade at 5 contracts covers 3 months of subscription. The time saved (45 min/day × 30 days = 22.5 hours/month) makes this a no-brainer for anyone trading Kalshi weather markets more than casually. First week is free.
How accurate are the forecasts?
NOAA ensemble forecasts outperform crowd consensus by 8-15 percentage points. A 2°F cushion typically beats Kalshi's 1.75¢ fee. We track every forecast against actual settlement data and publish the results. Our historical tracker is updated weekly.
Can I cancel anytime?
Yes. No long-term commitment. Cancel from your Gumroad library at any time. You keep access to all reports delivered during your subscription period.
Which cities are covered?
New York, Miami, Chicago, Denver, Austin, Houston, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Dallas, Atlanta, Seattle, Boston, Washington DC. We add new cities as Kalshi launches them.
Stop Guessing on Weather Markets
Get the data the professionals use — mapped to Kalshi tickers, delivered every morning.
Get Weather Edge — €19/monthFirst week free. Cancel anytime.